The Vuelta a España still has nine stages to go, but former racer-turned-commentator Joaquin Rodriguez already thinks there is a "90% chance" that Primoz Roglic (Jumbo Visma) will win it outright.

"Nine times out of ten, there is a chance of winning," Rodriguez, who has been on the podium many times in the Grand Tours and led the Vuelta many times, told Cycling News earlier this week.

"Among the favorites to win, Primozh has been the unluckiest rider so far, crashing twice in the team time trial and on the stage to Andorra. But despite these problems, he is the GC rider who can bounce back the strongest every time."

Roglic heads into the first of three crucial mountain stages with a 1:52 advantage over Alejandro Valverde (Movistar). But even after the Slovenian's strength on all fronts, "Prito" expects big fireworks at the Vuelta's various summit finishes, mainly from Roglic's rivals.

"Looking at the way the Vuelta has gone so far, the climbing specialists have attacked him everywhere they could, because they knew he would have a big advantage in the time trial," Rodriguez added.

"So far they haven't had much success. But I think they have to keep trying.

Rodriguez said that the first week of the Vuelta a España was spectacular, with players like Nairo Quintana (Movistar) taking risks and going on the attack, something he had not done very often before.

"If you look at the way Nairo attacked, you will see that it is completely different from the way he has raced in the last few years. Miguel Angel Lopez (Astana) also attacked from the 20km mark. Tadey Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) could also be a really interesting factor

"Indeed, Pogacar has already proven he has great form. He can take more risks than most players.

Rodriguez says Jumbo Visma is one of the two strongest teams in this year's Vuelta a España, along with Astana, even after Steven Kruijswijk was forced to abandon.

"Astana could change their strategy in the coming stages," Rodriguez warned.

Rodriguez believes that change in strategy could affect how the Vuelta unfolds in the mountains.