Two of the world's leading authorities on global health and epidemics have offered a bleak prognosis for both the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de France, as the spread of the coronavirus continues to have an enormous impact on the global sports calendar. [The Giro d'Italia is scheduled to begin on May 9 in Hungary, but with travel restrictions in place throughout Italy, that is looking increasingly unlikely.

Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told Cycling News that "there is no evidence to suggest that coronavirus transmission is affected by improved weather conditions," and that "until we know exactly where the virus is and where it is not (in It makes the most sense to postpone (sporting events) until we know exactly where the virus is and where it is not," he added.

French race organizer ASO has introduced new measures to separate riders and spectators at the start and finish in Paris-Nice this week, in accordance with a new French government edict, but such measures are almost impossible to maintain over the three-week Grand Tour, would draw huge crowds along the roadside. Italian legislation makes it clear that race organizers are responsible for the application of rules regarding crowd size and distance between spectators.

"Realistically, there will only be new cases of infection if we are able to stop the transmission of the virus from person to person," Sridhar said.

"Other sporting events go on without spectators watching, but cycling seems to be an 'open spectator' sport and is difficult to manage in the same way."

"Both the Giro and the Tour, both of which have far more than 1,000 riders in their troupes," Sridhar says: "The important thing is whether there is an extended community in the area where the race takes place.

"If so, or if clusters have been identified, it makes the most sense to postpone until it is clear where the virus is or is not."

Meanwhile, Adam Kucharski, a mathematician at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and author of "The Laws of Contagion," told the New York Times, "Some situations are more likely to spread infection than others."

"It turns out that for something like Covid-19, the most important thing is close interaction," Kucharski says.

"What we need to think about is not how much propagation is taking place, but where that propagation is taking place."

Both Sridhar and Kucharski advocate immediate restrictions on dangerous interactions that could further spread the disease.

"Think of ways to reduce such dangerous situations as much as possible," says Kucharski.

"There are many different scenarios. The best case scenario is that other countries contain the virus in a similar way, reducing the number of new infections." The worst case scenario is that the infection continues to spread in the coming weeks, covering a large portion of the population."

So what public health parameters would need to be met for either the Giro or the Tour to take place?

"Ideally, there should be a decrease in the number of new infections per day, a strategy of keeping people apart (by avoiding large crowds and social gatherings), and a sense that the outbreak has passed its peak," Sridhar said, but added that "it is difficult to predict right now because the number of infections is still increasing in Europe It is difficult to predict right now because the number of infections is still increasing in Europe," he added.

Cyclingnews contacted the ASO but received no comment.